![]() ![]() Low clouds and fog in the morning then sunny. Partly cloudy early then low clouds and fog. Highs from the mid to upper 80s at the beaches to 94 to 100 inland. Northeast winds around 15 mph after midnight. North winds around 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.Ĭlear. Highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s at the beaches to the lower to mid 90s inland. ![]() Southwest winds around 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Southwest winds around 15 mph in the afternoon. Highs from the mid 60s to around 70 at the beaches to around 80 inland. Sunny.except for patchy morning low clouds and fog near long beach. As Patzert likes to say, “When the Pacific speaks, we all should listen.90001 WEATHER WARNINGS (SEVERE T-STORM & TORNADO) So, as the record shows, there are no guarantees, but “conditions are ripe for a stormy, wet winter in the Pacific Northwest and a dry, relatively rainless winter in Southern California, the Southwest and the southern tier of the United States,” says Patzert.ĮNSO is still not fully understood, and numerous other factors play a role in global climate, but the Pacific Ocean is the 800-pound gorilla of climate factors. Green indicates what is close to normal.)Ĭurrently, the cooler La Niña water along the Equator measures between 3 and 6 inches lower than normal. (In satellite imagery, taller-than-normal heights are shown in yellow and red, while lower heights are shown in blue and purple. Where water is colder, it contracts, and the surface is lower. ![]() Since water expands when it’s warmer, the surface of the ocean is higher. Scientists at JPL in La Cañada Flintridge study the ENSO phenomenon with satellite technology that detects the height of waters in the Pacific Ocean. So El Niños and La Niñas can be pretty unpredictable, Patzert says, “But the statistics favor drier La Niñas and wetter El Niños, which is not good news for water managers, farmers and firefighters.” Repeating La Niñas often follow El Niños. Repeating La Niñas are not uncommon, and occurred most recently in the years, 0 and in. In 2016, only 9.6 inches fell, and that was during a strong El Niño. In 2017, 19 inches of rain fell downtown, and that was during a weak La Niña. The wettest La Niña year was 2011, when downtown scored 20.20 inches of rain. In only four La Niña years has downtown L.A. In 10 of the 25 La Niña years, downtown received less than 10 inches, so some of L.A.’s driest years come during La Niñas. Last winter, during a moderate La Niña, downtown got only 5.82 inches. The long-term average dating back to 1878 in downtown L.A. The average rain for La Niña years is 11.64 inches. (Rainfall years refer to the year that it ended.)ĭuring that time, there were 25 La Niñas and 26 El Niños - so they occurred with about equal frequency. El Niño and La Niña were not well documented before 1950, so he looked at the 72 rainfall years through 2021. Patzert uses annual rainfall figures (July to June) for downtown Los Angeles to represent Southern California, since the downtown figures go back the furthest. These ocean temperature changes are coupled with changes to the atmosphere and winds. The ENSO climate phenomenon has three phases: El Niño, a warming of the ocean surface its opposite, La Niña, which is a cooling of the ocean surface and a neutral phase in between. #CAwx #CAfire #CAwater /PHgOZEUWgb- Daniel Swain October 13, 2021īut Bill Patzert, a retired climate scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who has studied the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for four decades, says the deck is probably stacked for another dry year. California, on statewide basis, is now experiencing its worst drought in observational record going back to late 1800s-narrowly beating out peak of last drought in 2014-15 (as measured by PDSI, a metric that takes into account both precip & temperature). ![]()
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